According to the LA Times, Obama will only lose the 2012 election if the following three conditions are fulfilled. 1 the economy has to tank. 2 Obama cannot improve his image by handling a new international crisis well, and 3 the Republicans need to put forward a candidate "who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country's economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with." Basically he needs to have terrible luck, screw up a major situation, and be opposed by a totally surprising and completely awesome Republican candidate.
Now what are the chances of that happening?
New West's Amy Linn reported earlier that according to top economist Christopher Thornberg, while the economy certainly has a ways to go, nevertheless it is definitely improving. That's one prerequisite down. As for the requirement of another international crisis occurring in which Obama preform poorly, I do not know of any method to anticipate such an event. And regarding the appearance of a awesome, sent by the gods Republican candidate, neither Herman Cain, newt Gingrich, Fred Karger, Jimmy McMillan, Tim Pawlenty, or Buddy Roemer resemble such an individual.
Now what are the chances of that happening?
New West's Amy Linn reported earlier that according to top economist Christopher Thornberg, while the economy certainly has a ways to go, nevertheless it is definitely improving. That's one prerequisite down. As for the requirement of another international crisis occurring in which Obama preform poorly, I do not know of any method to anticipate such an event. And regarding the appearance of a awesome, sent by the gods Republican candidate, neither Herman Cain, newt Gingrich, Fred Karger, Jimmy McMillan, Tim Pawlenty, or Buddy Roemer resemble such an individual.
I think it's very interesting that you don't see those 3 as failures already in the bag. the economy may be improving, but if so it's at turtle's pace and it seems to me that the improvements only started once the GOP took over congress.
ReplyDeleteThe president has awful ratings right now, and I think Libya is enough of an international crisis to ruin Obama's chances.
I have faith that the republicans will put forth a candidate.
I think I might be cynical, I believe Obama will win- but honestly I think it has more to do with his image and the fact that he is the first black president, and not his great accomplishments that'll get him "first past the post".
So far, at this point, Obama still has a chance. The economy is improving, and people will remember that he had at least some part in that. The Republicans probaly won't be able to find the perfect candidate, at least not for this election. However, if the Libyan crisis isn't resolved soon, and with little loss of life, then Obama runs the risk of losing the next election. Most Americans are tired of war and tired of economic woes that result from war. Many no doubt wonder why America is acting as a sort of pseudo "international police force". We might be in the beginning stages of a return to isolationism, or at least a popular movement in favor of it. If Obama isn't able to resolve the Libya situation quickly and efficiently, in addition to any other crisis between now and the election, then he definitely won't be re-elected. Of course, if he can, his re-election is inevitable.
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ReplyDeleteYou write "I have faith the Republicans will put forth a candidate." I'm assuming you mean a candidate that fits the description in the post above.
But where is this candidate? If the Republicans can put him (or her!) forth, why haven't they done so already? Why is he/she hiding?
I don't know, are you sure you’re not attributing too much to Obama’s being the first black president? People were getting pretty fed up with America’s image of just jumping in anywhere and arrogantly stirring up revolutions. Obama's attempts, at pulling America of the sacrificial alter, have, I think, drawn less criticism than Bush's, when he decided we would be leading the fight. If he can successfully remind and reinforce in people’s minds, the positive benefits we will reap if we continue like, such as no longer being thought of as, “rude Americans,” I think he may be able to turn the whole Libya thing in his favor.
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ReplyDeleteWith all due respect to the LA Times, I'm not sure how much to make of this. There are so many other factors to consider like for instance, the REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE. If the Republicans cannot nominate someone who can compete, which is seems they are finding this to be a difficult challenge, then Obama may win regardless of whether he fulfills though three conditions.
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