What are the Chances?

According to the LA Times, Obama will only lose the 2012 election if the following three conditions are fulfilled. 1 the economy has to tank. 2 Obama cannot improve his image by handling a new international crisis well, and 3 the Republicans need to put forward a candidate "who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country's economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with." Basically he needs to have terrible luck, screw up a major situation, and be opposed by a totally surprising and completely awesome Republican candidate.

Now what are the chances of that happening?

New West's Amy Linn reported earlier that according to top economist Christopher Thornberg, while the economy certainly has a ways to go, nevertheless it is definitely improving. That's one prerequisite down. As for the requirement of another international crisis occurring in which Obama preform poorly, I do not know of any method to anticipate such an event. And regarding the appearance of a awesome, sent by the gods Republican candidate, neither Herman Cain, newt Gingrich, Fred Karger, Jimmy McMillan, Tim Pawlenty, or Buddy Roemer resemble such an individual. 

Palin 2012

We discussed ads this week and the effect they have on elections. Well I wonder what this add will do for Sarah Palin's ratings? She really doesn't have a great image. To top it off, according to the Times, if Michele Bachmann runs for president she may steal Palin's constituents. After all they both appeal to the same people with the same attention grabbing strategies. The one biggest difference, Bachmann hasn't made as huge a fool of herself yet.

Obama's goes South

Literally, Obama will continue with his plans to head to South America despite concerns that dealing two international crises ( Libya and Japan) might be too much even without adding to it by a trip to the south. Of course Obama and his administration responded saying they would continue as planned claiming Obama could handle these events just fine.
Whatever the case may be, the interesting point here, as I see it, these complaints are all about how Obama is doing his job. While it is true visiting South America in addition to dealing with the events in Libya, and Japan, can be a lot for any one person to handle, Obama has entire departments to help him deal with these issues and these concerns seem to be just slightly idiotic.

who will win?

in 2012 it is popularly believed we will have a democratic president with a republican congress but will that really happen? NPR take down by conservative activists just as their funding had come up for discussion may indicate a new play in the political  game. While it's nothing new for politicians to attempt to control the media the republicans seem to be trying harder than usual. For whoever takes the stage first sets the mood for the play and this time it looks like the republicans have stolen the mic.

On the other hand NPR is really just one organization, a cut in their federal budget may not influence to much, and the republicans haven't made much of a move yet. So the only thing to do is wait and see, but I think the war for the presidency has just started in a battle for the media.

CNN live today focusing on potential  presidential candidate Newt Gingrich's wife Callista to an almost insane degree in what seems to be an attempt to make the public start thinking of (as we've discussed in class and seen in the readings) Newt in a favorable light

the media's tutor

it is interesting to note the different ways the Alan gross story has been portrayed by the media. briefly Alan Gross U.s. citizen and resident of the state of Maryland has been imprisoned in Cuba for allegedly spying and trying to overthrow the state. The UK's BBC news spins this story so that it seems like Mr. Gross truly was spying. In the articles title Cuba charges US citizen Alan Gross with spying we already think what was he really doing there, and the article continues to give that sort of impression in a very factual way. On the other hand on the U.S.'s NPR's news blog while the facts are also there it seemed to me like there was a definite emotional spin on the story. through such statements as his daughter currently fighting cancer and other such comments.
One wonders which people will learn more from. I merely point this out because despite Hilary Clinton's push for the U.S. based media to learn something from Al-Jazeera's news style I do not think Al-Jazeera's bodies in your face approach is something that will appeal to the average american citizens sensibilities. On the other hand BBC's style, multiple facts some of them gruesome but not in such a way as to induce horror in us, might be something worth copying.

something mildly intersting

the press seems to have decided to pass over details of the economic stimulus negotiation going on now. still its important for all the college students on financial aid , to pa attention and be aware of whats happening. as things stand and unless we do something Pell Grants among other things will soon lose 61 billion dollars by the end of this semester. this could mean many people will need to quit or suspend their college education. while this might reduce the U.S's overall budget it is not (obviously) in our best interest. do we really want ourselves or our friends to have to leave just because the senate is in a tiff with the Obama administration? Obama's plans to reduce federal funding for summer programs and hopes to leave the Pell Grants alone as he sees the Pell Grants as an investment in the future. So all help is needed and if you are feeling supportive  whether its on Facebook or if you want to send a letter to your senator feel free and feel good.